Average winter predicted

It officially became winter on Dec. 21 and will remain winter until March 19. With that in mind, it’s time to look at what the winter will have in store for the Black Hills.

Jon Chamberlain, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Rapid City, explained what the winter will possibly have in store for the Hills.

There is no strong chance for above average or below average temperatures, he said.

“But given what we have seen so far average to above average temperatures are expected for the area,” he said.

So far, Chamberlain said, the temperatures have been osculating from above average to below average. This is expected to continue, he said, which means the average temperature will most likely be around normal to above normal.

One factor that will dictate the weather this season is a northwest flow of wind. One downfall of the northwest flow is that winds are expected to be higher than normal.

The lack of systems such as an El Niño or La Niña, too, will impact weather, meaning less chances for severe weather during the winter months through the time Gulf moisture moves up and creates its typical spring storms in the Hills.

In terms of precipitation, Chamberlain said to expect more precipitation than normal.

“The northwest flow brings with it more moisture, which leads to more precipitation,” Chamberlain said.

In the maps forecasting the winter forecast for the entire nation, the Black Hills fall into a green area, which means more precipitation is forecasted.

However, Chamberlain said to still expect normal amounts of precipitation in the winter months, and storms such as the one that hit over the weekend are still to be expected.

The weekend storm, Chamberlain explained, came from the south, meaning it brought with it Gulf moisture such as the ones seen typically during the spring.

“We get these systems coming from the southwest and the pattern breaks down due to Gulf moisture, but those are still rare in January and February,” Chamberlain said. “We are expecting average to slightly below average precipitation, but average (precipitation) is a good bet right now.”

Across the nation, warmer-than-average temperatures are forecasted this winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast released earlier in the fall.

“Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter,” NOAA said in its forecast. “Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the northern tier of the U.S. during winter, which extends from December through February.”

According to the NOAA season outlook, no parts of the United States are expected to have below-average temperatures this season and portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas as well as California are expected to have below-average precipitation.

While weather conditions such as El Niño and La Niña often influence winter, without the two present this year neutral conditions are in place and are expected to persist into the spring, NOAA said in its forecast.

Without either an El Niño or La Niña, long-term trends become a key predictor for the winter outlook while other patterns such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation will likely play a bigger role in determining the winter weather.

For example, the Arctic Oscillation influences the amount of arctic air masses that come into the United States; however, its predictability is limited to a couple of weeks, NOAA said in its forecast.

“Without either El Niño or La Niña conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in the forecast.