Dry winter to blame

Custer is behind on precipitation, but it’s winter—not summer—that is mostly to blame

Jason Ferguson

The City of Custer is about 2.9 inches below normal in terms of precipitation for the year—but don’t blame it on the summer.
Both July and August saw above-average precipitation when compared to historical averages, but were not able to make up for the first three fourths of the year that saw Custer have well-below average precipitation while also experiencing well above-normal temperatures.
Custer had only 2.12 inches of precipitation January through April, a time period during which it should receive around 4.33 inches of precipitation. 
Custer received only .11 inches of precipitation in January, compared to an average of .36 inches. In February there was .28 inches of precipitation compared to the average of .70, while March saw a mere .16 inches of precipitation, compared to an average of .92 inches. March is when the Qury Fire erupted and scorched 9,000 acres of land just outside of Custer.
The below-average precipitation for those months was coupled with above-average temperatures for some of the months.
February was especially warm, average 8.6 degrees warmer than normal for the month, while March was around 2.6 degrees above average for the month.
May through August were also warmer than normal, although July was the most significant, averaging 2.9 degrees hotter than average, including a high of 96 degrees July 25. May through August were also over two degrees hotter on average than the historical average, but saw a total of 11.75 inches of precipitation fall, .80 inches below normal for that timeframe. Rapid City set an all-time record  for heat July 25 when the mercury reached 112 degrees.
July was especially wet, with 4.23 inches falling, compared to the 3.16 average, with May having 3.27 inches compared to an average of 3.53 and August having 2.90 inches compared to an average 2.43 inches. However, the official precipitation measurement station for Custer is at the Custer County Airport, and many of the heavier rains were ultra-localized, with areas only a mile or two away form the city receiving little to no precipitation from storms that saturated the city.
Many areas in the county, the state and the country, for that matter, have suffered due to little precipitation and soaring temperatures.
“I’ve lived here my whole life and I’ve never seen it this dry, this hot, this long. We’ve seen some drought, but this is the worst one I can remember, and I’m 77 years old,” said Gordon Howie, a Caputa rancher in a South Dakota News Watch story by Bart Pfankuch. Howie served in the Legislature from 2009-11 and ran for governor in 2010.
But this year, perhaps the worst in recent memory, many shallow wells are running slow or have gone completely dry, forcing people to go to great lengths and expense to provide clean water for themselves or their livestock.
Pfankuch reported experts say several consecutive years of limited winter snow pack and a shortage of rainfall in some areas have combined with increased consumption of water to cause a decrease in the levels of some underground aquifers that are a main source of water for a large swath of the Black Hills region. The problem is most acute in areas outside the reach of pipes from municipal and rural water systems.
High heat during the summer of 2026 has exacerbated the problem as people, crops and animals all require more water than usual to survive.
“We have a well at the house, but it’s just not keeping up because the aquifer is dry,” Howie said in the News Watch story. “For 20 years you could trust that well 24/7, and it never quit on us, but now it’s not providing enough water for everything we need.”
While large, deep-water Black Hills aquifers such as the Madison, Minnelusa, Inyan Kara are lower in volume but still providing sufficient supplies of water, many smaller, shallower aquifers tapped by individual users of the aquifer are dry or getting close. Even some wells that don’t go deep enough into the large aquifers could be seeing reduced flows.
Mark Anderson, an adjunct geology professor at South Dakota Mines and a former director with the U.S. Geological Survey, said the Black Hills region is in the midst of a precipitation shortage that is preventing underground aquifers from recharging as fast or as much as usual, Pfankuch reported.
Combined with the large number of wells being drilled, the lack of rain and snow is causing concern about the long-term ability of aquifers to recharge enough to meet the needs of a growing population, Anderson said.
As reported by News Watch, that concern was highlighted in a recent USGS study showing that water use within some of the six “sub-aquifers” in the Black Hills is outpacing the rate at which the aquifers are refilling.
Worldwide, the story of 2026 is defined by historic high temperatures.
Forbes has reported the UK and parts of Europe logged record-breaking hot summers accompanied by severe wildfires. Concurrently, the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization have issued warnings regarding a rapidly intensifying, “supersized” El Niño climate pattern that threatens to prolong extreme heat and disruptive weather patterns well into 2027.
Locally, there are streams and creeks outside Custer that have stopped flowing, and reservoirs are rapidly drying up. French Creek and Grace Coolidge Creeks are flowing well below normal flow, while Angostura is at 40 percent capacity, and Pactola is 21 feet below pool, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Belle Fourche Reservoir is at 38 percent of capacity.
Kevin Smith, metrologist with the National Weather Service, said extreme heat can be attributed to a number of factors, including weather patterns such as high pressure systems that support higher temperatures and climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña, which are tied to the position of jet streams and surface temperatures over the ocean.
Smith said looking ahead, the odds favor above normal temperatures across western South Dakota and equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation through November. He said there is no outlook available yet for how the winter will shape up in terms of precipitation.

Editor's Note: This story has been corrected online and the email version to correct the precipitation levels reported in the print version. The print version said 11.75 inches of precipitation fell between May and August, and said that was .21 inches above normal for that timeframe. That is actually .80 inches below normal for that timeframe, with June receiving only 1.35 inches of precipitation during that timeframe, compared to a historical average of 3.43 inches. We apologize for this error.